Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision, author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

Saturday, 1 April 2017

Strangled

Refinance

If you listened to the podcast I did with Business Insider in February you may recall that I refinanced out some equity to buy a property, while at the same time refinancing mortgage debt into new interest-only products for 5 years at a mortgage rate of just over 4 per cent. 

The loans have offset facilities so I can build up buffers, or repay the debt early. 

Why did I do that? Read on...

APRA tightens the screws - 9 impacts

Yesterday, APRA announced further measures to cool certain sectors of the housing market this week.

Every man and his dog has written about this already, with a few excellent insights and some interpretations that were just plain weird - so let's keep this post as short as possible, shall we? 

OK, here we go...

APRA wants lenders to place strict internal limits on the volume of interest-only lending at loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) above 80 per cent, so firstly some lenders will immediately require a 20 per cent deposit for this type of loan. A shift in this direction has already taken place to some extent, so the impact of this may be marginal.

Lenders must now also ensure there is "strong scrutiny and justification of any instances of interest-only lending at an LVR above 90 per cent", so interest-only loans with a deposit of less than 10 per cent will generally go the way of the dodo and the lo-doc loan. 

Again, this has by and large already happened, but will have the ongoing effect of knocking a few more first-time buyers out of the market, while having no impact on incumbent owners with existing equity.


Speed limit

The existing 10 per cent cap on growth for investment mortgage books will remain in place. I've spoken to branch managers and bank owners, and their view is generally that this won't have too much impact since new loans can always be pushed back a month.

But a third impact may be that some lenders have to wind their necks in just a little bit further. 


Fourthly, there will likely be a shift in the investor loan segment of the market towards private financiers or non-bank lenders, perhaps some of whom may offer commercial-style rates. 

Fifthly, banks have been presented with an open goal here for raising the rates on their investor loans, so rates will inevitably be ratcheted higher in due course. 

Switch...

Between July 2015 and February 2017 some $50 billion of loans were switched from investor to owner-occupier mortgages following the introduction of an interest rate differential between the two types of loan. A sixth impact will therefore be yet further switching of loan purpose. 


Why worry?

So far, so unremarkable. But there's more...

By far the most important impact will be a new 'speed limit' on interest-only loans in Australia, with APRA now aiming to limit the flow of new interest-only lending to 30 per cent of total new residential mortgage lending.

At the heady peak more than 45 per cent of new loans were interest-only in nature, with investors in particular favouring this type of product in order to maximise their tax deductible expenses.  

A seventh impact will be that new owner-occupiers wanting to use this type of product in future may be given their marching orders, and possibly some aged borrowers too. 


Eighthly, if that is even a real word, two of Australia's major banks have been rolling over interest-only loans more or less automatically at the end of the interest-only period, and these lenders will almost certainly now require a far more stringent assessment. 

Of course, few borrowers will default on a loan when they've seen the value of their Sydney property double over the preceding five years, though they might choose to sell off their investment if the repayments become too arduous. The impact in markets where dwelling prices have declined might prove to be an altogether more dramatic story.

The ninth impact - perhaps an over-arching point really - is that far too many investors have simply assumed they will continue rolling interest-only debt ad infinitum, and they may now have to get it into their heads that they will be paying back principal sooner or later.

Seemingly every other week an article surfaces featuring 'young gun investors' with a dozen interest-only loans having been used to buy high-yielding properties in far-flung areas. 

Credit markets tend to move in cycles, so APRA's changes may or may not be permanent, but in the prevailing market conditions some borrowers could get caught short if they've simply planned to continue rolling interest-only debt on an endless loop. 

Oh, and there may be further macroprudential measures to come!