Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Tuesday, 4 April 2017

It's gettin' hot in here...

Hot in here... take off all your clothes?

A hot February was one plausible explanation for another poor retail trade result, with turnover declining by 0.1 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms to $25.692 billion.

That's a big miss on expectations, and now the second decline in only the past three months!

In trend terms turnover increased by 0.1 per cent to a new high of $25.726 billion.

Year-on-year retail turnover growth has sagged to 2.9 per cent in trend terms, and just 2.7 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. 

Monthly retail turnover fell in no fewer than five jurisdictions in February, with only New South Wales, South Australia, and the Northern Territory in positive, erm, territory.

Surprisingly South Australia now leads the way with year-on-year retail turnover growth of 3.94 per cent. 

February was a hot month - certainly up here in Queensland it was - but how far that explains the 2.53 per cent drop in clothing and footwear retail turnover in February is open for debate. 

At least the month of February was a slightly better month for department stores after a dismal run. 

Looks like we've been choosing to cool off with turmeric and coconut milk lattes instead.

Overall, there's not much positive that can be said here, just another possible signal that policy has been too tight.