Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the finest property analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Business Insider.

"I've been investing 40 years yet I still learned new concepts; one of the finest young commentators" - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

'The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate - loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia...follow Pete Wargent' - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, 2 x NYT bestseller.

'Superlative work' - Grant Williams, founder RealVision.

Thursday, 9 March 2017

Half-decade low for Melbourne vacancies?

Vacancies trending down

Interesting statistics from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV), which suggest that record population growth in Melbourne is absorbing the new supply of apartments.

In fact, the 6-month average trend for vacancy rates is sitting at its lowest level across the chart which spans half a decade.  


This mirror a similar pattern to Sydney, where population growth has also accelerated.

Still, there are attached dwellings aplenty under construction in Victoria and New South Wales.

And these are overwhelmingly located in Melbourne and Sydney.


Defaults begin

It could be an interesting year ahead for the apartment market.

With mainland Chinese investors reportedly now struggling to settle on apartments, it is a near certainty that apartment commencements will fall sharply, particularly in the three most populous capital cities. 

In Brisbane high-rise approvals have already dropped from record highs to near zero as developers back away from the looming glut of supply. 

While the slowdown in construction may be no bad thing for the unit market at face value, it's worth remembering that the construction industry employs well over 1 million Australians, so the impact on employment will likely be material.