Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Sunday, 19 March 2017

Geelong tees off

Thar she blows...

As someone allegedly knows something about property, I have to confess I didn't participate in Melbourne's property market through its recent stellar run, having been focused on Sydney, and more lately Brisbane. 

At least I won't miss out on Geelong, though.

Geelong had always looked to be a likely contender for the ripple effect from Melbourne, being located less than 50 miles from the capital, and being a generally good city in its own right.

And then the Labor government more or less nailed it on by announcing a series of measures to stimulate the market.

I broke a golden rule of thumb when discussing possible price impacts here when I estimated that median house prices in the city could feasibly rise by 20 to 30 per cent by 2020 (never use numbers; they always go for the numbers...).

Somehow, that became a median price of $600,000 (refer here for my actual view: "it's not hard to envision prices in Geelong moving 20 to 30 per cent higher by June 2020, particularly in the sub-$600,000 bracket").

Anyhoo, the point was that prices could rise as a result of the stimulatory measures, not least because the new legislation doesn't take full effect for months, affording opportunists a free kick at buying before 1 July. 

And it looks like prices are teeing off already.

Last weekend the auction clearance rate in Geelong moved above 90 per cent, the highest regional or non-capital city clearance rate in the country.

And there are now regular stories of street records being smoked.

This weekend a house that last sold for $310,000 in 2009 sold for an astonishing $836,000 at auction. 

It looks like a rocket has been put under house prices in Geelong West.   


All the hallmarks of a nascent boom.