Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Tuesday, 21 February 2017

UK asking price growth slows

Asking prices slow

The rate of UK house price growth has slowed to +2.3 per cent according to Rightmove and its asking price index, which is some way below the rate of growth recently recorded by the Halifax and the Office for National Statistics.

A slowdown in asking prices may be no bad thing, if it means that more properties actually transact.

The early part of 2016 was punctuated by a flurry of buy-to-let activity to avoid the April 2016 stamp duty deadline, which naturally we aren't seeing this year. 

Solid growth was still recorded in the East of England (+4.8 per cent) and the South East (+3.1 per cent), while we're also starting to see some price growth in the North West in markets such as Manchester.

London saw its asking prices jump by +2.3 per cent in the month of February back up £641,116.

Asking prices in the capital over the past year are now flat however, with the inner London market unusually accounting for the weakness.

It's not hard to imagine what's happened to the premium sector of the market where in some cases liquidity has all but evaporated. 

There have been significant falls in asking prices in the most expensive boroughs, with prices down sharply in Kensington & Chelsea (-14.6 per cent, including -14.4 per cent or £360,000 in just one month), and Hammersmith & Fulham (-10.8 per cent year-on-year).

Granted, the enormous monthly fall in asking prices in part likely represents premium properties not being listed as much as actual price falls, but even so the weakness in the premium sector of the market is apparent. 

Don't shed too many tears, though, for the average asking price in Kensington & Chelsea is still well over £2.1 million even after the February decline. 

The absurd stamp duty brackets will fail to raise any worthwhile extra revenue, since transaction levels  in some premium markets have simply dried up. 

Nationally average days on market have increased a bit from 68 to 79 days since this time last year, while stock levels are down, albeit marginally. 

What is to the detriment of the expensive boroughs can be a gain for the cheaper end of town.

There has been some sprightly growth in some of the boroughs we like, including Greenwich (+7.4 per cent), and Croydon (+6.4 per cent), while Camden was top of the tree for asking price growth over the year to February 2017.

Decline, Road Sign, Warning, 14