Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Wednesday, 8 February 2017

Australia's most valuable commodity

Lucky country

What is Australia's most valuable export commodity?

I guess most people would rightly say that it's iron ore, and then coal, in that order.

Although you could increasingly make the case for our services exports, such as tourism and education, given the potentially positive flow-on effects of these sectors over the longer term.

Or maybe you could even go with Crocodile Dundee, for a contrarian viewpoint.

Perhaps the most convincing argument of all, though, would be that Australia's most valuable commodity is something else again: luck!

Incredibly, despite Chinese port stocks apparently as full as they have ever been, iron ore futures were off on a tear again today.

The iron ore spot price, while recording less substantial gains of just $0.24/tonne today, has nevertheless come within a smidgen of taking out a new 2.5 year high at $83.53/tonne.

It's uncanny how often things like this seem to turn up in Australia's favour just when things need a boost.

Just when it seemed that the production phase of Australia's export boom would yield only a moderate boost to national income, the trade surplus surged to $5.8 billion in original terms in December, a figure the like of which has never been seen before.

Even after the seasonal adjustments, it was by far the biggest trade surplus on record.

Most analysts expect that the prices of the bulk commodities will pull back this year after booming in extraordinary fashion in 2016. 

But for now, the coffers are swelling nicely. 

A lucky country ("run mainly by second rate people"!) indeed.