Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Thursday, 12 January 2017

Temporary visa holders soar towards 2 million

Students drive visa growth

There has been a lot of misleading commentary about population growth dropping off a cliff, and so on.

It really isn't, but the composition of growth is sure changing.

I explained here back in 2015 why international students would be the key driver of growth going forward.

It's a key reason why so many bloggers and analysts got their supply and demand ratios so muddled last year, particularly in Melbourne where population growth broke all known records in 2016, but also in Sydney, and to a much lesser extent Brisbane. 

The latest figures from the DIBP confirmed a walloping increase of 90,380 temporary visa holders over the year to September 2016, with a crunching increase in student visa holders of 45,070 over the year.

Remember many international students are expected to go to secure Australian residency through other visa classes.

There was also a massive 51.4 per cent increase in temporary graduate visa holders, easily eclipsing the relatively small decline in skilled 457 visas (that form the basis of most doomsday scenarios).

Source: DIBP

By far the greatest number of temporary visa holders were Kiwis on the visa subclass 444, increasing by 2.3 per cent to 677,030, dispelling the narrative that all Kiwis are heading home.

Total temporary entrants will rise towards 2.1 million by the end of 2017.

Thanks to the visa subclass 444, some 34.5 per cent of temporary visa holders are New Zealanders.

However, the real growth sector is in student visas, particularly to Chinese and Indian students.

Most international students head to institutions in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane - in that order.

As expected, the insatiable demand from international students will keep on keeping on, delivering a substantial boost for population growth in those three capital cities through 2016 and beyond.