Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Population growth picks up a bit more (more Chinese tourism records)

Population growth uptick

Net long term and permanent immigration picked up a touch to +267,200 in the year to November.

With the strong gains in temporary visa holders to nearly 2 million, this points to another increase in annual population growth, probably putting the total close to 350,000 in calendar year 2016.

Short term arrivals continued to bust records, breaking through 8.2 million in November.

With household wealth hitting a record $9 trillion it's probably not that surprising that Aussies are still holiday abroad in near-record numbers.

Yet cracks are starting to show here, with the lower dollar clearly helping the rebalancing.

Not only are more overseas trips increasingly bound to closer and cheaper locations such as Bali - a sure sign of the currency impact - seasonally adjusted short term departures also dropped quite sharply from 843,100 to 813,200 in November. 

There was a massive 249,000 increase in annual visitors from China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, for an 18 per cent annual uplift to 1.62 million. 

A quarter of a century ago we were lucky to get a handful more than 1,000 visitors per month from China. This is simple amazing stuff! 

This trend is doubly important for Australia, for we know that on average Chinese visitors spend up big more than those hailing from any other country.

The wrap

Strong numbers, yes, but at least as important are internal migration and demographic trends, with the largest capital cities mopping up a record share of population growth in 2016.

On the one hand, population growth has dried up or at least been sluggish in South Australia (0.5 per cent), Western Australia (1 per cent), Tasmania (0.5 per cent), and the Northern Territory (0.2 per cent). 

On the other hand, between them the two most populous states accounted for more than two thirds of population growth. 

It's impossible to predict accurately, but it increasingly looks as though Melbourne shattered all population growth records in 2016, with Victoria probably adding about 130,000 heads, in turn eclipsing the similarly massive growth in New South Wales of about 105,000.

Queensland's population growth probably picked up to above 65,000 as Sydneysiders began to head north in search of sun, steam, and space.

You could pretty much smear a tube of Banana Boat around the rest.