Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Sunday, 22 January 2017

New housing finance topping out

Topping out

I recently wrote here how it looked as though new home finance had shaped into quite a neat double top formation.

In November, finance for new owner-occupier purchases increased a bit, but overall the trendline does suggest that a second peak is forming. 


The slight rebound ties in with the rebound in new home sales in the month, previously noted here.

Mainly investors buying new

It's often said that investors mainly invest in established housing, with charts produced to prove it.

Of course, with the total dwelling stock only increasing by less than 2 per cent over the year to September 2016 to 9.76 million, it stands to reason that most investors will buy established - there just aren't that many new properties in any given year. 

I have been more interested to know what percentage of the new housing stock was purchased by owner-occupiers, but nobody I have asked seems to know (or even care about) the answer.

The housing finance figures show that owner-occupiers financed the construction of only 68,200 homes and the purchase of just 31,490 dwellings. 

What the housing finance figures don't capture is that some owner-occupier buyers of new homes are cash buyers.

But nevertheless, it's clear that largely the buyers of new dwellings are investors, albeit many of them from overseas.