Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Tuesday, 31 January 2017

Investor credit accelerates again

Conditions improve

A much better month for business credit, which grew by 1.1 per cent in December.

In fact, business credit growth was strong for the fourth quarter in its entirety after a miserable May to September period, which may reflect the generally improving conditions in Q4. 

The most noticeable point from the Reserve Bank's Financial Aggregates release was another big jump in housing investor loans in December, taking annual investor credit growth up from 4.6 per cent in August to 6.2 per cent by the end of the calendar year. 

We know from data elsewhere that this is once again being driven largely by Sydney and Melbourne, in that order. 

This may be the end of the easing cycle, but then we've heard that before.


Thanks to instances of 'switching' of loan purpose from owner-occupier to investor, technically the outstanding value of investor credit is below where it was back in June 2015, but the more reliable figure for total outstanding housing credit shows an increase of 6.3 per cent for calendar year 2016. 

And the total credit aggregate grew from $2.5 trillion to $2.65 trillion in 2016.

Unusually, business accounted for a greater share of outstanding credit in December, while consumers are eschewing the traditional forms of personal credit, reflecting the increasing use of offset accounts are other methods of reducing interest charges. 


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