Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Thursday, 19 January 2017

Have you wondered why everyone is moving to Melbourne?

A few more jobs

I have wondered to myself why everyone is moving to Melbourne.

I had my suspicions, of course, and now they have been confirmed: it's the only place creating any meaningful numbers of jobs. 

A few more jobs

First the good news.

Employment increased by 13,500 in December to 11.986 million, with full time employment up for a third month, this time by 9,300.



After a great 2015, annual jobs growth was quite meagre in 2016 at just 91,500 or 0.8 per cent.

In the preceding calendar year the equivalent figures were 310,000 and 2.7 per cent. 



Unemployment ticks up

The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.8 per cent in December, although in trend terms the unemployment rate has been flat for months at 5.7 per cent. 


Western Australia saw its monthly unemployment rate decline from 6.9 per cent to 6.6 per cent, but since the trend data is calculated using Henderson moving averages, the trend ticked a little higher again in December. 


Around the states, unemployment rates converged towards each other in December. If you think about, it that's what should happen over time. 

2016 a soggy year, except for Melbourne

Overall, it was a weak year which followed a very good year for the labour market figures.

Although total employment did increase in 2016, the uplift was driven by 120,900 part time jobs while full time employment actually declined over the year. 

The total number of hours worked in the economy increased by only 0.5 per cent from a year earlier.


While I've learned not to place too much stock in monthly employment figures at the state level, it's clear that by far the best performer was Victoria, which saw its total number of employed persons increase by nearly 119,000. 

In doing so, the Victorians accounted for all of the increase in employment last year. 

It's just goes to show how strong a multiplier the construction industry can deliver.