Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Monday, 9 January 2017

Approvals ease back (Bris apartments)

Approvals trend down

Building approvals bounced back to a seasonally adjusted 17,569 in November, but the trend is still down, especially for units, townhouses, and apartments. 

The annual total number of approvals continues its long drop back to earth, now down to 232,600 from well above 241,000 at the 2015 peak. 

Most sectors of the market are now trending down, but the 'high rise' sector has the furthest to fall.

Around the traps

Developers lost confidence in building detached homes with an acceptable profitable margin in Perth long ago, but most other capital city markets are holding steady.

There was a bit of a pullback in Sydney apartment approvals this month, but Melbourne rebounded.

The standout trend is to be found in Brisbane where apartment approvals will likely now go into freefall, reflecting an inner city market that will be well oversupplied in 2017. 

This particularly relates the high density sector of tall tower blocks. 

As the old saying goes, the bigger the boom...

The wrap

Overall, this was actually a pretty solid result, but Perth approvals and Brisbane apartment approvals need to correct, and are now doing so. 

While the pipeline of dwellings under construction is still sizeable, construction activity in the residential sector is set to become a negative contribution to Australia's national accounts.