Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Monday, 12 December 2016

Tourism & education go Boom-BOOM

Immigration steady

If you're a new blog reader...g'day!

If on the other hand, you're a long term blog reader, you'll need no reminding of a theme raised regularly here - to pay less attention to the spruiking of permanent arrivals figures and more attention to the number of international student arrivals (in line with forecasts made by the Department of Immigration and Border Protection).

Net permanent and long term arrivals stabilised at +266,700 over the year to October 2016, around the level we've seen for the past seven months now.

After accounting for the natural growth in population (births minus deaths) net permanent and long term immigration at this level will hold population growth up at around +325,000 per annum. 

Meanwhile, short term arrivals have boomed to a record high 8.15 million, largely thanks to the lower Aussie dollar, which is great news for Sydney, Queensland, Tasmania, and other popular regions of the tourism industry. 

It's worth noting that Aussies still made 9.83 million overseas trips over the year to October, so if we really want to get the economy moving again, a dollar below 70 US cents would one way to do it. 

Asian Century - tourism & education boom

The unprecedented boom in short term arrivals has of course largely been driven by China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, with numbers surging by another +19 per cent over the year to a record 1.6 million.

A combination of a favourable shift in the exchange rate and the patronage of Oprah Winfrey has led to a massive surge in US tourism too, with annual arrivals up by +18 per cent to a record 701,800. 

Generally speaking settlers and visitors are coming more from Asia and less from Europe these days, with rapid growth in visitor numbers from a whole host of Asian countries.

The education arrivals numbers are something else again.

The rules for international student visas were streamlined and simplified effective 1 July 2016, and the impact has been swift and immediate with year-on-year arrivals up by 47 per cent in October, taking annual arrivals to a record 519,700 (up by an astonishing +15.2 per cent from the prior year).

If an oversupply of apartments in Melbourne is a concern then here is an effective means with which to tackle it: tens of thousands of students from China, India, and elsewhere in Asia, lured by the incentive of residency or sundry visa types upon the completion of their studies.