Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Friday, 2 December 2016

Resurrection

Kaboom

Greetings again, pop pickers.

Fans of bubbles and speculative orgies will find some reasonable amusement in this. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia's Index of Commodity Prices has seared +32.1 per cent higher than a year ago, thanks to surging iron ore and coking coal prices. 

Of course, the index is prepared on a monthly average basis using preliminary estimates.

When using spot prices for the bulk commodities (see the red dotted line) the index has gone absolutely ballistic, up by +15.6 per cent in November alone to be up by +61.9 per cent over the year.



Similar results in Aussie dollar terms, although movements in the currency have helped to smooth the journey through the mining boom to some extent. 


As for the bulk commodities index itself, using spot prices the index has increased by an outlandish +145.1 per cent since November. 



Quality forecasting!

It's partly valid to note that Australia hasn't benefited much yet from the explosion in prices, which may only be temporary, yet coal contracts have been signed at up to ~$300/t FOB (something which was basically unthinkable at the end of last year). 

It's not only the bulks that have been on a tear, a number of metals such as zinc have hit multi-year highs, with the base metals index up +26.7 per cent since January.

The oil price has also soared over the past 48 hours on OPEC cuts, getting December off to a flier. 

Of the main commodities in the index, only gold has been struggling lately. 

There's one other commodity that isn't officially captured in this index yet Australia nevertheless seems to have in abundance at times when it really needs it: luck! 

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