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Monday, 5 December 2016

Job ads up again in November (4.5 year high)

Jobs ads rise again

ANZ's Job Advertisements series rose by +1.7 per cent in November, after rising by +1.0 per cent in October. 

The series is now up by +6.1 per cent over the past year, which is a solid result.

There has been a long, slow recovery in the number of vacancies since 2013-14, now up to 164,438 from 155,011 a year ago in November 2015.

ANZs view is that things are getting better, but at a slower rate:

"The rise in ANZ job ads over the past four months is quite encouraging given the recent softness in the employment data. 

It is consistent with our view that although the pace of improvement in the labour market has slowed, conditions remain supportive of ongoing recovery."

Plenty for the Reserve Bank to consider tomorrow.

Although interest rates will be on hold, there will be plenty of discussion of weak wages growth and low inflation. 

The Melbourne Institute's monthly inflation gauge reported another soft monthly result of just 0.2 per cent for an annual rate of inflation of only +1.1 per cent. 


Today's Business Indicators figures feed into GDP reported a seasonally adjusted result for inventories of +0.8 per cent, well ahead of market expectations, and not for the first time probably enough to keep GDP growth positive.

It's amazing how often this seems to happen.

Wages (+1.2 per cent for the third quarter, and +2.9 per cent for the year) were also better than expected, with hours worked rising in the quarter after a decline last time around. 

Company profits were up only modestly by +1.0 per cent for the quarter, with mining company profits rebounding (+5.8 per cent), in turn suggesting much softness elsewhere.  

With all of the other weak numbers feeding in to this quarter, GDP growth will still no doubt be a fizzer.

But perhaps not the headline-grabbing negative result that people were hoping for. 

Meanwhile, real income should be up towards the end of the calendar year on the back of stronger bulk commodity prices. 

As for the outlook going forward? 

A bit patchy, but back-to-back positive results for retail sales suggest reasonable momentum being carried into the new year.