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Monday, 12 December 2016

Backatcha (Sydney & Melbourne investors return)

Lending improves

You lucky people.

There is literally so much news out this week, I'm going to have to ration your fun.

First, a quick look at today's somewhat improved Lending Finance figures for October.

We've already look at the homebuying sector, which has slowed in tune with lower listings this year.

However, property investor loans have come surging back after the initial pullback post-regulatory intervention.

You can see how important property is to credit growth in Australia, with total commercial lending tracking the path of property investor loans. 

Commercial finance has rebounded nicely, but remains well below where it was in October 2015. 

Total lending finance has thus also improved quite a bit to $68.8 billion since a seasonally adjusted lull in June, although this was 5.8 per cent lower than a year ago when the proerty investor lending boom was in full swing. 

Incidentally, personal finance lending is approaching a decade low. I can't really say why, except perhaps that due to the popularity of mortgage buffers and offset accounts the survey doesn't capture what it used to (?).

Average credit card balances outstanding continue their decline from the prior year, which can only be a good thing. 

SYD-MEL investors return

Property investor lending is back, and back with a vengeance in Sydney.

In Victoria and Queensland too, investors loans are on the rise. 

Investor loans remain in decline in South Australia and Western Australia, but less steeply than before. 

It looks as though I may have become excited too soon in Darwin as investor lending resumed its sharp downward trajectory in the Top End, a trend which has been in place for more than two years since September 2014.