Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Thursday, 3 November 2016

Timely boost coming Queensland's way

Deficit narrowing

Despite softer export volumes the trade deficit narrowed very nicely by 35 per cent in September, down to $1.2 billion.

That's the best result since late 2014. 

After some horrible deficits in recent times, is there now even a cheeky trade surplus hoving into view? Maybe!

The main driver of the improvement in September was an estimated $368 million increase in coal FOB values, as rocketing coal prices finally began to benefit Australian exports. There should be more to come here too.

Services exports are also improving, if steadily.

The trade services balance has been clawing its way back for several years now as the lower dollar gradually helps the economy to rebalance.

In fact, the trade services deficit was at its most agreeable level since November 2010, helped along by strong inbound tourism.

The services PMI gauge also returned to expansion in October, up by +1.6 points to a reading of 50.5, supporting the improved result. 

Asian exports weak for now

Commodity exports to Asian countries have been very weak, particularly to Japan and Korea, although this trend should hopefully reverse as coal export prices rise.

Indeed, a combination of rocketing coal prices and record gas (LNG) volumes is set to send a welcome boost in Queensland's direction.

After treading water for years, export values from the Sunshine State are now on the up again. 

The trade surplus in Queensland improved to $1.3 billion, the best result 16 months, with more good news for the state in the post. 

The wrap

Overall the preliminary estimates showed a significant improvement in the trade deficit, helped by rising commodity prices, if not volumes. 

The figures still suggest that a trade surplus might even be feasible before too long.

After a very difficult transition, Queensland finally looks set to see some upside as gas exports from Gladstone are ramped up, as coal begins to deliver royalties again, and as tourism thrives in the lead-up to the Commonwealth Games.