Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

'Huge fan of your work. Very impressive!' - Scott Pape, The Barefoot Investor, Australia's #1 bestseller.

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the finest analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Business Insider.

'I've been investing 40 years yet still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the finest young commentators' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

'The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate - loads of good data & charts...most comprehensive analyst I follow in Oz' - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, 2 x NYT bestseller.

Tuesday, 15 November 2016

Scorched earth (Sydney investors again)

Lending finance improves

Policy makers no only too well how vital housing market lending is to credit growth these days.

Total lending finance improved by +1.9 per cent to $68.4 billion in September, despite remaining down by some 7.4 per cent over the past year. 

However, the rebound was mainly driven by property investors filtering back into the market as the regulatory pressure valve is released a little further.

In trend terms lending to owner-occupiers has eased, in part due to lower transaction volumes, but commercial finance (which includes property investor loans) is beginning to rise again.

Credit card balances and limits were both down year-on-year.

No mining investment rebound yet

In truth, Australia's resources investment boom was not much financed by commercial loans in the first place, but as an indicator these figures show how lending to the mining industry has been annihilated over the past year, with annual fixed loans down by nearly three quarters from a year ago.

If there is to be an eventual rebound in mining investment on the back of this year's bounce in commodity prices, there was zero evidence of it in these figures for September.

Sydney investors on the warpath

As for the property investor loans figures by state, New South Wales saw investor loans increase to a 14-month high of $5.8 billion, thus taking the annual total back up to $57.2 billion.

And this into lower market listings - small wonder the Sydney market is now on the rise again.

CoreLogic now reports Sydney dwelling prices as up by +14.5 per cent over 2016 to date. Whether or not other data providers agree, the market is clearly heading north. 

In Victoria, too, investor loans are now evidently increasing again.

Indeed, investor loans seem to be finding a base everywhere, even in the resources states.

APRA watching closely

Overall, a so-so result for commercial finance once lending for property investment is stripped out.

Investors are returning to the markets of Sydney and Melbourne in particular, meaning that APRA may be poised to act again in 2017.