Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.
"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.
"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.
"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.
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Tuesday, 29 November 2016
APRA released its quarterly property exposure figures today for the period ended 30 September 2016.
If there has been a slowdown in lending, sheesh, it's hard to make out from the chart.
Total domestic residential property exposures increased by +7.9 per cent from a year ago to a new high of $1.46 trillion.
Exposures are now some +130 per cent higher than they were in 2008.
The growth in exposure to investors has been stopped in its tracks, however, with new loans to investors down 14 per cent from a year ago.
However, owner-occupier loans stepped in to breach the gap, with exposures rising by +12.9 per cent over the year to September, and the value of new loans to homebuyers rising by some +14 per cent.
In short, lenders have switched focus from investors to homebuyers.
The regulator has taken a number of measures to limit riskier lending.
For example, loans of 90 per cent or higher loan-to-value ratio (LVR) are now just 8.5 per cent of the market, down from 22 per cent in 2009.
Thus, most borrowers are using substantial deposits, whether borrowed from parents or from existing loans (some may even be saving deposits, who knows?!).
Low-doc loans and loans approved outside serviceability are also now a small segment of lending.
There has been a sharp pullback in the number and value of interest only loans over the past year, with this sector of the market dropping by 15 per cent from a year ago.
Buried in the small print there were some upward revisions to previously reported interest only loans reported by one institution.
While exposures to investors has decreased, there does not seem to be much clarity surrounding the categorisation of outstanding loans (as evidenced by previous revisions), and as such in aggregate there may be more investors in the market than implied.
The average loan size over the year increased from $244,000 to $255,000.