Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Thursday, 10 November 2016

Immigration turns up a notch (8 million+ short-term arrivals)

Immigration up

Annual net permanent and long term arrivals into Australia increased marginally in September to +267,500, some way up from the nadir of +262,800 in June. 

A significant driver of the rebound has been permanent settlers from Asia, of which there were 74,300 over the year to September, or 56.6 per cent of the total. 

By contrast, permanent settlers from New Zealand, and from Europe with their weakened currencies, continued to wane significantly.

8 million & beyond

The rebalancing quietly continues, with the number of short term departures ticking a notch lower for a third consecutive month in September, while short term arrivals smashed new records by a huge margin at 709,700 in the month (+11.7 per cent over the year).

The chart therefore dovetails into a neat 'pincer' formation, as short term arrivals flew beyond 8 million for the first time, and the pace of increase approaching two decade highs!

No surprises for guessing that the increase was driven by the 1.58 million visitors from China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, which even now are still increasing at an annual pace of more than 20 per cent. Extraordinary!

There has also been a huge lift in tourism from the United States, rising at an annual pace of around +18 per cent. 

While tourism is of course a major driver, the role of international education should not be underestimated with a record 506,200 education arrivals over the year to September (+12.7 per cent).

While there are inevitably some back-and-forth trips within these figures, as an indicator this chart matches up quite closely with enrolments data which have also suggested rapid growth in international student numbers, particularly from China and India.

The wrap

Quite a solid set of numbers across the board here, with record short term arrivals and increasing immigration. 

Overall, this points to annual population growth tracking at around +350,000, but note how population growth is being driven less by 'permanent' arrivals and more by those arriving on other types of visa.