Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Tuesday, 1 November 2016

Commodity prices on a tear (+29pc since January)

Commodities take off

After increasing by a revised +2.1 per cent in September, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Index of Commodity Prices soared by +9.5 per cent in October. 

This means that not only will national income rebound in Q3, it may positively rip in Q4. 

The index is now up by +29 per cent since January to be +16 per cent higher than a year ago.


In Aussie dollar terms, the index is up by +19.9 per cent since December to be +7.8 per cent higher than a year ago. 


If you look at the subindices you can see that export prices are still lagging miles behind spot prices, which have increased by a muscular +95.1 per cent (SDR terms) still bottoming out in December.

In fact using spot prices for the bulk commodities, the Index of Commodity Prices is a thumping +34.2 per cent higher than a year ago!

The gains were largely driven by coking coal, as well as iron ore, while base metals and rural subindices also rose in the month.

The coking coal price began the year at under US$80/tonne, yet today it touched US$260/tonne, due to a surge in Chinese imports and supply constraints. 

If export prices continue to follow the trajectory of spot prices, then the best of the spike may yet be to come.


A handy boost indeed for the Treasurer!

No surprise, then, that the Reserve Bank kept rates on hold today looking at these very positive numbers.