Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Thursday, 27 October 2016

Terms of trade up 7pc since March

Income boost

The ABS reported its International Trade Price Indexes figures for the September 2016 quarter. 

There was a welcome +4.5 per cent boost to the terms of trade in Q3, signalling that the 'income recession' has ended, at least for the time being. 

In fact, this was the biggest lift in the terms of trade in half a decade.

Export prices rose by +3.52 per cent in the quarter, while import prices pulled back by-0.97 per cent. 

The result comes off the back of a similarly strong improvement in Q2, meaning that Australia's terms of trade have improved by ~7 per cent since March.

There is more to come in Q4 as well, with metallurgical coal prices having exploded another +27 per cent higher in October to date to above US$270/tonne.

Australia's coking coal prices have more than tripled since their November low, as China now looks to address its supply cutbacks.