Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

'Huge fan of your work. Very impressive!' - Scott Pape, The Barefoot Investor, Australia's #1 bestseller.

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the finest analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Business Insider.

'I've been investing 40 years yet still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the finest young commentators' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

'The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate - loads of good data & charts...most comprehensive analyst I follow in Oz' - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, 2 x NYT bestseller.

Thursday, 27 October 2016

MEL-SYD lead jobs growth

Employment growth slowing

As expected, total employment growth slowed to +163,900 over the year to September, according to the ABS Detailed Labour Force figures, for an annual employment growth rate of +1.4 per cent.

The employment growth rate had been much higher, which has helped to bring down Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from 6.3 per cent to 5.6 per cent. 

Over the last year, Greater Sydney and Melbourne combined have accounted for 78 per cent of employment growth.

The figures for regional New South Wales look a bit unusual, recently sinking back down.

This odd-looking decline was driven by year-on-year employment in Shoalhaven and the Southern Highlands shrinking by more than a quarter, which looks suspiciously like a statistical anomaly.

After a flat half decade, regional Victoria has added a decent +30,400 jobs over the year to September, with Geelong accounting for most of that increase (+20,000). 

Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra accounted for the remaining employment growth over the past year. 

On the other hand year-on-year total employment declined in Perth, Darwin, and Hobart, as well as in regional Queensland, regional Western Australia, and regional South Australia.

In fact, excluding the recent burst of employment growth in Geelong, regional employment growth has been negative in aggregate (with some areas obviously faring better than others), which is more or less what you would expect to see as resources investment continues to decline over the forthcoming year.

Sydney unemployment rate falling

Looking at the capital city unemployment rates, the most striking performance is that of Sydney, where the unemployment rate has declined to 4.68 per cent. 

Elsewhere, there looks to be a fair amount of labour force slack.

The wrap - capital cities creating the jobs

In original terms, over the last two years employment has increased by a very solid +385,000 or +3.4 per cent in Australia (the seasonally adjusted figures put the increase at a slightly stronger +396,800).

Sydney and Melbourne alone have accounted for +250,600 of the increase, while Brisbane accounted for +43,500.

By far the strongest 'rest of state' figures over a two-year timeframe have been seen in New South Wales.