There are so many moving parts.
Part 1 - Commencements pass peak
Firstly, dwelling commencements have now passed their peak.
It appears reasonable to surmise that the commencements frenzy has now calmed down a tad.
In original terms commencements fell by nearly 20 per cent in New South Wales in the June quarter, and in the chart below you can see why.
In fact, there are an unprecedented 39,359 dwelling approvals that have not been commenced.
However, the number of dwellings already constructed over the past year at around 32,000 - added to those still under construction - is clearly too high in the face of slowing population growth, thereby guaranteeing that the local property market downturn in Perth continues into 2017.
Which means that by around the end of 2017, the market will be supplied to the max.
The big cities are just starting to work their way through the apartments pipeline.