Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Saturday, 1 October 2016

Brexit wobbles negotiated, precariously

Brexit wobbles?

UK consumer confidence rebounded close to pre-Brexit levels in September, while Q2 GDP growth was revised up marginally from +0.6 per cent to +0.7 per cent as further investment and services data became available.

It seems that the fears of the economy instantaneously crapping itself were somewhat overblown, although things may change in time.

House price growth was pretty much flat in the month of September, with the average price checking in at £206,015 according to the Nationwide index. 

Annual price growth nationally has eased to +5.3 per cent. 

Nationwide noted although construction has picked up a little housing supply has only picked up gradually, and is still nowhere near the levels needed to meet population growth and demand. 

Meanwhile the number of homes on the market remained close to all-time lows.

Here's the national average house price chart, with a (my) trend line drilled through it.


While prime central London is being clobbered by punitive stamp duty changes (see: record low stock on market), the fastest annual average house price growth was seen in Outer Metropolitan London at +9.6 per cent.

Capital growth over the year to September was also very strong in the areas surrounding London, including the South East (+8.0 per cent), and East Anglia (+7.3 per cent).

In aggregate the London average price rose by +7.1 per cent over the year to September.

The below chart indexes average house prices to Q1 1993 for England's regions.

The capital city London and nearby University and tech hub Cambridge have seen house prices explode higher, with daylight next. 


London house prices are now a thunderous +56.3 per cent above even their 2007 peaks.

In the north of England, however, prices have declined over the past year and remain at the levels seen more than a decade ago. 

Indeed, average house prices in the North, North West, and Humberside regions remain below their 2007 peaks. 

Annual house price growth has been soft in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Yorkshire, and the North West of England.