Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Saturday, 3 September 2016

US payrolls below expectation

71 months of expansion

The US Bureau Of Labor Statistics released its nonfarm payrolls figures for August, which showed employment increasing by +151,000 in the month. 

This was generally reported as a soft result being below expectations of +180,000, although after moderate revisions the US economy has added an average of +232,000 jobs per month over the last three reports (admittedly May was a stinker). 


Mining employment continued to decline to be down by -223,000 since September 2014, with job gains this month concentrated in health care (+14,000), social assistance (+22,000), financial activities (+15,000), and food and drinking places (+34,000). 

The tally of consecutive months of employment growth rose to 71, the highest on record.


Over 2016 calendar year-to-date average employment growth has been a little over +181,000 per month.


The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9 per cent, with the number of unemployed persons also little changed over the year at 7.8 million.


And average hourly earnings rose only moderately, up by 3 cents to $25.73, to be +2.4 per cent higher than one year ago.


Overall, a result that missed expectations but continued the theme of steady expansion. 

I haven't spent much time reading reactions, but market consensus is that the miss on expectations snuffs out the prospect of a September rate hike, with Fed tightening by the end of the year being an each-way bet.

Aussie dollar now buying a slightly higher 75.66 US cents.

100 not out

An interesting week ahead in domestic Aussie news. 

On Wednesday the ABS will report that Australia has notched up an impressive 100 quarters without a recession.

Although the quarterly result this time around will be a soft one - possibly very soft - the economy is still expected to have grown by around 3 per cent over the year to June.