Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Wednesday, 14 September 2016

UK property market DESTROYED by Brexit?


Well, everyone else appears to be going for the most ridiculous clickbait headlines on this story, so if you can't beat them...

Some publications have even already shifted from London prices "crashing" back to reporting on unaffordable housing within the space of a couple of months. 

As is so often the case the truth is somewhat less exciting, with volumes down sharply - in fact, they were already under pressure before the referendum - but prices fairly unperturbed to date.

In the event the Office for National Statistics reported that the average UK house price was £217,000 in July 2016. 

This is £17,000 higher than in July 2015 and £1,000 higher than last month.

Note that the July figures incorporate plenty of activity and transactions pre-dating the referendum.

The main contributor to the increase was England, where house prices increased by 9.1 per cent over the year, with the average price in England now moving up to £233,000. 

The ONS rather charitably didn't mention that the average house price in Northern Ireland of £123,000 is still 45 per cent below the July 2007 peak of £225,000 (note how the revised historical data doesn't even try to capture the monthly moves in Ireland through the super-boom and subsequent bust, reporting only quarterly averages). 

The widely reported London crash has been a fizzer to date, with the average price rising by 12.3 per cent over the year to an all-time high of £485,000. Some interesting food for thought here for those claiming that regional property is a better bet than capital cities, with London and its immediate surrounds accounting for more than 100 per cent of real price growth over the last dozen years. 

In truth, the London story is rather more nuanced, with transaction volumes down very sharply in some boroughs, and the prohibitive stamp duties on premium properties knocking the Kensington & Chelsea market for six (with its average price of £1.3 million). 

Prices are down by 3 per cent in the borough over the year to July. Prices also fell moderately in the upmarket Hammersmith & Fulham borough, down by 1.6 per cent.

On the other hand, the average price in Croydon has continued to boom by a further 19.4 per cent, adding nearly £60,000 in just a year to hit £365,479. Prices in Croydon have gone ballistic since AllenWargent recommended it as a hotspot in 2013/14. 

A number of localities in the Home Counties are experiencing very rapid house price inflation. 

The East of England region recorded the highest annual growth, with prices increasing by 13.2 per cent over the year. As already noted, annual price growth in London remained very high at 12.3 per cent, followed by the adjacent South East region with an 11.9 per cent annual growth.

Post-Brexit trends will become clearer over the next six months.