Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Tuesday, 20 September 2016

Post-Brexit bounce (Bottoms up!)

UK confidence rebounds

Rightmove’s House Price Index recorded the average UK asking price as rising by +0.7 per cent or an increase of +£2,277, having fallen by 2 per cent over the preceding two months.

Of course, the price of property coming to market is not the same thing as properties actually selling, but nevertheless Rightmove reported a “broadly positive” result as the market “continues to shrug off post-Brexit uncertainty”.

Although price growth has slowed first homebuyers are in danger of being “marooned” according to Rightmove.

Rightmove reported a monthly jump of +£6,240 or +3.3 per cent for newly-marketed properties of two bedrooms or fewer (with new seller asking prices in this sector up by +10.5 per cent over the past year).

‘It’s a deal, it’s a steal, in fact…’

Well, it’s not quite sale of the century just yet.

In London punitive stamp duties have sent the prime central sector from star pupil straight to detention with average asking prices now lower over the year.

As expected, joint top of the class sit the cheaper London boroughs of Croydon (+11.0 per cent) and Barking & Dagenham (+11.0 per cent).

However, asking prices in salubrious Kensington & Chelsea are now down by -11.7 per cent over the past year, although at £2,054,707 average asking prices remain far from a steal.

Premium markets tend to be illiquid and the journey can be volatile.

Average asking prices are also down year-on-year in Westminster and Richmond Upon Thames.

Overall asking prices in London rebounded by +1.9 per cent in the month or +£11,565, after four consecutive monthly falls.

Outer London prices remain up by +5.3 per cent over the past year.

The fastest annual growth was recorded in the East of England (+7.9 per cent) and South East (+5.7 per cent).

The wrap

I wouldn't want to draw too many conclusions from an asking price index.

Clearly inner London's prime central market is suffering from stamp duty changes, regardless of any Brexit impact.

Elsewhere, there could be a bounce in confidence, albeit on low volumes.