Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Friday, 16 September 2016

New motor sales tracking at record

New motor sales at highest on record

The ABS Sales of New Motor Vehicles figures showed a seasonally adjusted 97,929 new units sold in August 2016, now a little below the record level seen in September 2015.

In rolling annual terms the 1.176 million units sold is a record high, although with the September 2015 reading about to drop off the annualised result the peak for the cycle may soon be in. 

Sports Utilities accounted for a record share of sales at more than 37 per cent.

Cheap fuel!

NSW boom

The boom has largely been driven by Sydney and Melbourne, with the state of New South Wales notching up a record 394,875 sales over the year to August.

Experiences overseas have shown that cities become less liveable at a headcount of around 5 million.

Thus from this Sydney property market cycle forth we might expect to see a shift in dynamics with inner suburbs outperforming as folks pay a premium to avoid a painful commute (actually this is already happening according to market commentary).

Parramatta Road is a nightmare, and it's set to get worse during the construction of the West Connex motorway. 

Production stalls

Automotive production volumes have declined dramatically since 2012. Although annual volumes have held up over the last year, sadly production will fall sharply further from here as Holden shutters its plants. 

The wrap

Record high sales, but on closer inspection the stimulus from lower interest rates might just be fading a touch nationally. If this is the case it would be in line with what we have seen from the retail trade data and with associated implications for household consumption.