Real-time thoughts & analysis of the markets, economy & more...
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property market & hedge fund advisory.
Check us out here www.allenwargent.com - to invest in Sydney/Brisbane property or for media/public speaking requests email firstname.lastname@example.org
Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
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"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.
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Wednesday, 7 September 2016
National Accounts day! (100 not out)
Headline GDP looks good
Favourable GDP partials have been reported this week.
Although net exports will be a drag this time around, there was a particularly a big drive in public demand (+2.7 per cent) including a surge in investment, suggesting that today's National Accounts could show that the economy grew anywhere from +3.3 to +3.5 per cent over the year to June.
Watch out for downward revisions to the first quarter.
This will notch up an amazing 100 consecutive quarters without a technical recession for Australia.
The terms of trade also posted a welcome +2.4 per cent increase in the June quarter.
All great news.
On the other hand, the mostly ignored Balance of Payments figures showed the current account deficit widening from $14.9 billion to $15.5 billion in seasonally adjusted terms.
Meanwhile, net foreign debt rose by $22 billion to $1,044 billion from $1,022 billion in March, and as a share of annual GDP net foreign debt rose to a fresh high of 63.8 per cent.
Of course, borrowing is very cheap right now, so debt servicing costs are at a 15-month low in declining from 8.1 per cent to 7.2 per cent.
I'll take a look through the National Accounts later.