Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Tuesday, 13 September 2016

Mining cliff more than three-quarters done

Cliff has ended

Interesting speech from Christopher Kent of the Reserve Bank of Australia today, in which he confirmed that the drop in mining investment since 2012 is now more than three-quarters done (which ties in with what we have already seen in the ABS engineering construction figures). 

The drag on growth from mining investment is now waning, which is positive news for the economy.

Despite the end of the mining investment boom, Australia's GDP growth has comfortably outperformed other advanced countries. And despite many claims to the contrary, GDP per capita has also increased, so growth has not only been driven by population growth. 

GDP is forecast to continue expanding, with growth expected to be about 3 to 4 per cent through December 2018.

The unemployment rate has to date done a bit better through the aftermath of the boom than had been expected, with forecasts suggesting a steady decline over the next few years. 

The RBA anticipates that the terms of trade index will remain broadly unchanged from here on, encouraged by the rebound in commodity prices in 2016. 

Anyway, those were a few of the interesting points, but the full speech is here