Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Sunday, 18 September 2016

How not to be unemployed in Australia

Wasted youth

How best not to be unemployed in Australia?

Don't be young cobber, basically.

By the way, you can click on these charts to make them bigger.

The slightly more heartening news is that once you get over the age of 25 you're relatively unlikely to be unemployed.

The historical figures by age cohort that I've charted below provide some context.

Unfortunately when the economy isn't firing it seems to be more or less inevitable that young people with less experience are the first to be punted and the last to be re-hired. 

But whichever way you spin the numbers an unemployment rate of above 12 per cent for 15-24 year olds in Australia is unacceptably high.

And especially so when compared to an unemployment rate of just over 4 per cent for all other measured cohorts combined.

The figures from during the mining boom showed that youth unemployment can get well below double digit levels if the economy is performing.


Week ahead

A fairly quiet week ahead for economic news but there nevertheless will be some interesting releases out, including the ABS Residential Property Prices for Q2 2016.

Given the ABS stratified median price methodology and what we have seen from other data providers for the second quarter of this calendar year, I expect to see only moderate price gains in Q2, which will be followed by a stronger uplift in Q3.

The market forecast range for Q2 runs from a moderately feasible +0.5 per cent to an improbably bullish +5.5 per cent.

Later in the week will be the Detailed Labour Force figures for August which will add some more colour to which regions are being hit most severely by the resources bust.

And on Thursday, I expect the Australian Demographic Statistics figures for Q1 2016 to show that nationally population growth has been tracking at around 1.3 per cent per annum, with magnetic Sydney and Melbourne mopping up a proportionately record share of the absolute population growth.

The demographic data also lags significantly: it will show Australia's population passing 24 million in the first quarter of 2016, but as of today the estimated resident population is 24,192,500.