Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.
"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.
"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.
"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.
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Friday, 23 September 2016
The Detailed Labour Force figures confirmed that Greater Sydney had the lowest unemployment rate in August 2016 at 4.7 per cent, while Greater Brisbane has also been trending down nicely on this measure.
In truth, though, these headline unemployment rates mask under-utilisation across most employment markets.
It's not that hard to see why employment growth is slowing in Australia. The Sydney jobs market, which was firing, has lost its fizz of late.
Brisbane, too, is not creating as many jobs as it was, while Perth, Hobart and Darwin are in negative territory year-on-year (as are several of the 'rest of state' markets, including regional Western Australia, Tassie, and the NT Outback). Not that great.
Overall then, year-on-year employment growth has sagged to +182,500, with a high share of that work being part time in nature.
The net new jobs that have been created have been in Melbourne, regional New South Wales and Victoria, Sydney, and Brisbane.
Lest you think otherwise, I don't have any personal gripes with Townsville.
It's merely that this data series doesn't provide figures across that many sub-regions, and Townsville provides a useful snapshot of the trends that have played out across many resources regions.
Total employment here is 27 per cent below the 2010 peak, largely thanks to a combination of the mining downturn and a drought.
There are 15,600 unemployed folks in the Townsville region, and the unemployment rate is 14.5 per cent.
Resources regions will recover eventually from the collapse in investment. In fact, I expect the nadir in mining investment will be reached within the next 18 months.
But it will take time for the slack in Australia's labour force to be taken up, and potentially a very long time.
Impossible to say what will happen for sure, but if I was a punter I'd have a few bucks on the cash rate being in a range of 1 to 2 per cent for the next three years, maybe more.