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Tuesday, 9 August 2016

Job ads point to "steady improvement" in hiring

Job ads slow recovery

ANZ's job advertisements data series continues its long, low grind.

Seasonally adjusted job ads of 157,278 in July were lower than in June, but +6.9 per cent higher than one year ago. 

Trend job advertisements increased by +0.3 per cent in the month to be +6.5 per cent higher than in July 2015.

According to ANZ the series fell sharply in early July, before rebounding, suggesting that election uncertainty likely played a role in the early part of the month. 

A similar 3 per cent fall was seen in consumer confidence in early July, and these losses were also subsequently recovered after the majority election result was announced. 

Overall, with the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates in August, ANZ anticipates a steady improvement in hiring conditions through the remainder of the year.

Total advertisements are tracking about 25 per cent higher than at the most recent nadir in Q3 2013, which is obviously great news. 

And the improvement has been enough to see the national unemployment rate decline from a 2014 peak of 6.3 per cent to 5.8 per cent over the last couple of years (see blue line in the chart below), with the slower rate of immigration playing its part. 

That said, the recovery really has been a long, slow, grind higher, and job advertisements remain well below where they were at their heady pre-financial crisis peaks. 

It's worth noting that resources industries and regions are not faring so well. 

ANZ made reference in its report to "upbeat" surveyed business conditions, and this was mirrored by the NAB Business Survey for July.

Source: NAB