Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Friday, 22 July 2016

Small migration to NZ from Aus

NZ migration in a "declining trend"

Having hit record high levels in 2015, migration into has New Zealand has passed its peak and steadied, with a declining trend in migrant arrivals.

Since peaking at 6,200 per month in November 2015, migration has steadied to a historically high 5,700 per month.

Reported Statistics NZ: 

"Recent net gains have shown a declining trend. The trend in migrant arrivals is declining".

And with New Zealand's economy weakening, migration will likely slow further in due course.

Annual migrant arrivals from Australia were flat in June at 25,703, broadly unchanged from a similar figure in May, having previously increased over the last two years in response to a performing New Zealand economy. 

In terms of net migration from Australia, reported Statistics NZ: 

"There was a small seasonally adjusted net gain of 200 migrants from Australia in June 2016".

Met migration can be a handy indicator of the relative strength of the respective economies of Australia and New Zealand.

Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.8 per cent in June, and the trend rate of unemployment has declined to a 33-month low (although this does mask under-utilisation and under-employment in most states and territories). 

Statistics NZ has not yet released its unemployment rate figures for June, but recently the unemployment rate across the Tasman has been rising.

Migration to New Zealand from Australia is sometimes referred to as a recession indicator. 

However, there is no recession in Australia - in fact the economy grew by 3.1 per cent in the year to March 2016, and 3.2 per cent in trend terms.

Meanwhile Australia's population grew by 326,100 in 2015 and has since increased well past 24 million to 24,136,000.