Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Sunday, 10 July 2016

Retail trade fizzles

Fizzle

A quick 30-second catch up with the May Retail Trade figures (I didn't get around to it the other day) which showed another underwhelming result, with turnover up by just +0.2 per cent for the month.


In trend terms annual growth has declined to +3.3 per cent, which is below the half decade average.


Industry split

Strength in retail trade has previously been driven by a surge in household goods sales and discretionary spend on cafes and restaurants, but these sectors are no longer running quite so hot.



Over the last quarter food retail and "other retailing" has recorded solid growth, but overall the headline results are not pointing to a strong GDP contribution from consumption in the second quarter. 


State versus state

At the state level easy monetary policy has kept activity ticking over, but the resources states of Northern Territory, Western Australia, and Queensland have all lost momentum in retail turnover.



The ACT had seen a burst of activity earlier in the year following the opening of a new IKEA, but this fad too seems to have passed.



After a decade of stagnation best performing state year-on-year was Tasmania.

The wrap

A soft result, overall, and the household savings ratio is still quite elevated.

An interesting week ahead, with the May housing finance figures due out tomorrow morning.