Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Tuesday, 7 June 2016

US payrolls an absolute stinker

US payrolls dumped


One wonders sometimes whether someone upstairs isn't conspiring to keep Australian asset prices heading higher.

After a string of robust data back home, the jobs report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics saw payrolls up by just +38,000, missing expectations of +160,000 by a country mile. 

More damagingly, there were downward revisions to previous months totalling -59,000. 

The response rate to the survey was low this month, so this could be an anomaly, and the headline numbers may have been impacted by the Verizon strike.

But there is clearly a risk that jobs growth in the US may be losing momentum.  

Average monthly payroll gains over 2016 year-to-date are now considerably lower than in each of the preceding two years. 

The US unemployment rate notionally fell to 4.7 per cent in May, with the participation rate down by 0.4 percentage points over the last two months to 62.6 per cent. 

While we'd all be much happier with an unemployment rate of 4.7 per cent than 10 per cent, in this instance the headline result does not represent a bullish result. 

Average hourly earnings were by by 5 cents to $25,59, to be up by a solid enough +2.5 per cent over the year.

The wrap

Overall, a fairly dreadful result for US payrolls this month, which missed market expectations by a huge margin, although there remains a fair chance that there will be upward revisions to these figures in due course.

The Aussie dollar bolted nearly 2 per cent higher on Friday - the largest gain in over a year - before settling at around 73.65 US cents.  

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will leave interest rates on hold today, but markets are pricing a high probability of rates being cut again by August.

The Melbourne-Institute (MI) Inflation Gauge recorded a reading of just 1 per cent over the year to May, it's lowest  ever reading since the gauge was born in 2002. 

After last quarters exceptionally weak official CPI results, another similarly soft reading for the second quarter on July 27 could prompt further monetary policy action.