Others represent no such hazard, yet have been espoused so frequently they are increasingly being treated as common knowledge.
The global financial crisis and ensuing stock market crash is an excellent case in point. Everyone is an expert in the causes and the timing of the financial crisis today. And they'll write books about the next global recession after the event too!
For example, studies in behavioural finance have shown that we tend to feel twice as bad about losses as we do good about gains.
Here’s a simple 30 second exercise:
If you pick a smiley face then I give you $100,000, but if by chance you should pick a sad face then you receive nothing. Alternatively you can just whip out the ball from Box 2 and receive a guaranteed $75,000.
Which choice would you instinctively go for? Box 2? Yep, so would I!
Alternatively, you can just pick the ball from Box 2 and lose a guaranteed $75,000. What now? Box 1? Aye, same for me.
The choice seems intuitive because on average when it comes to money we despise losing more than twice as much as we love winning.
Essentially it's a short-sightedness which urges us to look out for our immediate well-being, but sometimes at the expense of long term success.
Instincts are often wrong
Why do we think this way? It's hard to say for certain, but my reckoning is that it's derived from a primeval survival mechanism that humans have continued to develop over generations - we will always be acutely aware of short term risks to our well-being, while long term outcomes seem less pressing.
Further, we unconsciously link actions to the way the make us feel at that moment in time.
Long term success
And you can't time corrections accurately either, even if your instinct tells you otherwise. No-one can.