Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Saturday, 11 June 2016

Lending finance eases

Lending finance eases

Total Lending Finance eased back a little in the month of April, and sits below recent highs in trend terms. 



Commercial finance has come unstuck a little lately, while APRA's tightened serviceability criteria have slowed lending to both property investors and owner-occupiers, at least temporarily.


Industry

At the industry level, it seems that low interest rates have helped the respective economies of Melbourne and Sydney - with business borrowing rates now confirmed as being at their lowest ever level - but elsewhere not so much.


Commercial lending to the mining sector has been obliterated, down by more than half in rolling annual terms in the last year alone.


Other industries are not faring too badly.

Property investor loans

APRA's crackdown has continued to slow property investor lending across the board.


Meanwhile in the Northern Territory, the property investment outlook is grim.


The wrap

A short and snappy post today.

APRA's macroprudential measures and their impact appear to be following a very similar trajectory to what played out in Britain during and after its Mortgage Market Review (MMR).

The initial measures ran interference with the market and knocked back prices and activity for a period of time, before the market reasserted itself and experienced a second wind.

Only some time later has Britain's housing market reached its apparent peak, and eventually it was changes to tax policy (and a confidence sapping referendum) which will be recognised as having brought the up-cycle to a close.

Australia could be treading a similar path. 

On Monday, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia will announce that it has slashed mortgage rates on a number of its products, with mortgage rates increasingly set to be available below 4 per cent from a number of lenders.