Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Thursday, 19 May 2016

Unemployment rate at a 30-month low

Unemployment rate slightly lowers

Some good news - the unemployment rate in April declined ever so slightly to its lowest level in 30 months at 5.722 per cent. 

Seen in its wider context and with the trend line inserted, the trend unemployment rate is now at a 31 month low. 

At the state level, New South Wales (5.3 per cent) has the lowest unemployment rate, and South Australia the highest (7.0 per cent). 

Superficially promising news.

However, delving beneath the cover plate the component parts of the data reveals a weaker story, with a decline in full-time jobs, hours worked, and participation. 

For example, the declining unemployment rate in Western Australia may seem to imply a turnaround in fortunes, whereas in reality full time employment growth has dried up since 2012.

It's obviously great that the unemployment rate has been in a downtrend.

However, if your base case was an interest rate cut in August based upon weak non-tradables inflation, then today's figures probably reinforced your position more than they contradicted it.