Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Monday, 9 May 2016

Stop the slogans!

Three, word, slogans

The worst kept secret in Australian politics is out of the bag, with the Federal Election due to be held on July 2. 

As we get set to be bombarded with three word slogans ("jobs and growth" is already wearing a bit thin) one saving grace is that compared to elsewhere Australian election campaigns tend to be a relative sprint not a marathon, although this one will be an eight week epic in Aussie terms.

By far the most exciting news to date has been that Chris Bowen has shaved off his beard, which resulted in him "trending" on Twitter for several hours yesterday.

Queensland will be a key election battle ground, so the state can expect plenty of attention over the coming weeks. 

In this digital age doubtless few days will pass without clickbait articles declaring the result to be too close to call or neck and neck.

I don't really pay much attention to the early polls, so not really sure what's been going down, but assume on that Turnbull must be miles out in front as preferred PM, but two party preferred is likely to be reported as quite a bit closer in a pre-election campaign poll.

The one thing I do check in on is the odds quoted by bookies, which show the Coalition as a shoo-in (running contrary to an armada of media articles which seems to imply that Shorten is on the cusp of a glorious victory).

It would be extremely unusual to see an Opposition party win after one term - it hasn't happened since the War - while Treasurer Morrison has proferred a "forward defensive" budget which seems to have avoided him getting cleaned up for a golden duck.

Mainly for those reasons, overall I reckon Turnbull will ease home in the end.

Stop the votes

Even with the odds as skewed as they are in favour of Turnbull, the most popular bet has still been a Coalition win.

As for investment strategy, forget negative gearing or the impact of the election on shares or property markets - if you reckon Labor is going to win there must be a retirement Super Yankee staring you right in the face looking at these odds!