Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Tuesday, 10 May 2016

Job ads...meh

Job ads stall

After gravitating nicely higher in trend terms for 27 months, the ANZ job advertisements series appears to have lost its mojo, and has now slipped into a three month downtrend. 

In seasonally adjusted terms job ads fell by 0.8 per cent in April (in case you was wondering, the trend data series is derived be applying a 13-term Henderson trend to the seasonally adjusted series - fascinating stuff, as I'm sure you'll agree). 

Job ads have basically been flat for about six months now, suggesting that the rapid pace of employment growth may be set to fade forthwith.

ANZ sees hiring as having "taken a breather", which may make it troublesome for the unemployment rate to continue falling at the same pace that it has been. 

Is the looming Federal election a factor in the pullback? Maybe, it's bit hard to say.

The reaction to the Federal Budget has been a bit mixed. Not too damaging or exciting, with any downside to consumer confidence probably offset by the Reserve Bank's interest rate cut, while business activity remains fairly robust. 

Anyway, can read ANZ's musings here.

The wrap

Overall: meh.