There's rarely much room for a middle ground in such debates of course, and we've apparently gone from "chronically undersupplied" to "Irish" in the relative blink of an eye!
Below are the expected unit settlement figures by capital city, courtesy of Kusher's once again outstanding research.
"Greater oversupply than the US?"
Although faithfully reproduced in the media, this is a fairly hackneyed calculation to say the least.
Commencements did hit a record high in Q3 2015, but remember that high density projects can take several years to build, so actual dwelling completions are generally a worthier guide to housing supply.
Only in Q2 2015 did the annual completion rates finally reach the levels assumed by Montgomery's figures.
I can't move my young family into a building approval (and certainly not feasibly into a 45 square metre high rise unit approval).
We obviously cannot know the precise total population growth figures from the beginning of 2012 to the end of 2016, but my projections show that the total figure is likely to end up being close to 1.75 million, with an extra 26,000 or so heads in need of housing in Australia each and every month.
Recall that international student numbers are also going ballistic, particularly from China.
Don't get me wrong, the outlook for the high rise sector is indeed bleak, but for the wider homebuyer market, not so much.
Looking at the actual completions data, the number of detached house completions has actually remained below previous cyclical peaks.
It's in the attached dwelling space where the really spicy action has been happening, particularly in inner city Melbourne and Brisbane.
But on the other hand, the apparently rebuttable presumption that developers are completely thick-witted isn't veracious either, and where pre-sales and completions ultimately cannot be met then construction activity will in turn drop off. It's a cycle.
For the reasons already noted the oversupply calculation has been overestimated.
The chart below shows just how skewed approvals have been to the high rise sector, with much of this stock being sold offshore.
Like all booms, high rise booms end in busts, and this one will be little different. However, if you look at what's been happening in the homebuyer market, we've actually been approving and then constructing fewer dwellings than in previous cycles, not more.
In the larger capital cities "where the ratio of new stock to existing stock is low, the impact of new stock on the price of existing dwelling prices is diminished".
It is worth noting that any cyclical oversupply of units is only likely to be temporary, with the level of population growth in Greater Sydney (up by 83,300 over the year to June 2015, to move beyond 5 million today) and Greater Melbourne (up by 91,600 in the year to June 2015, and today sitting at around 4.6 million) in particular being exceptionally strong.
With the cost of money so cheap, ultimately the outlook for the new high rise apartment sector will be determined by whether lending criteria are tightened or relaxed.
There's not much evidence of oversupply in these areas. However I do agree that the high rise hubris could be a case of pride coming before a fall - for that sector.