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Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyers & WargentAdvisory (subscription market analysis for institutional clients).
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Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
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Tuesday, 31 May 2016
Building approvals resurgent
A triple whammy of positive news for the Australian economy this morning, with net exports set to contribute to +1.1ppts to a solid GDP growth result for the first quarter, business credit rising to its strongest annualised rate of growth since January 2009, and building approvals easily beating expectations.
The April Building Approvals figures showed a seasonally adjusted 20,243 approvals, with the number of units, apartments, townhouses, and semis increasing to 10,490.
Total building approvals have confounded expectations to establish a five month uptrend.
More than 234,000 dwellings have been approved over the year to April, equally split between detached houses and attached dwellings.
As depicted by the green line, this is historically unusual.
Houses and units
Only Melbourne is really going for it on the house approvals front.
Yet in terms of attached dwellings both Sydney (37,228) and Brisbane (21,228) have approved historically high volumes, while Melbourne (31,566) is now retracing from unprecedented heights.
High rise surge - concentration risk
More than 73,000 of the dwellings approved over the past year have been "high rise" approvals of four or more storeys.
This clear risk is concentrated within pockets of the three most populous states.
A terrific set of results for the economy in this morning's data, with the building approvals data suggesting that the residential building boom has a fair way to run yet.
Clearly some areas will be awash with new apartments over the next couple of years, with a twin settlement and valuation risk looming in this sector.