Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Tuesday, 31 May 2016

Building approvals resurgent


A triple whammy of positive news for the Australian economy this morning, with net exports set to contribute to +1.1ppts to a solid GDP growth result for the first quarter, business credit rising to its strongest annualised rate of growth since January 2009, and building approvals easily beating expectations.

The April Building Approvals figures showed a seasonally adjusted 20,243 approvals, with the number of units, apartments, townhouses, and semis increasing to 10,490.

Total building approvals have confounded expectations to establish a five month uptrend.

More than 234,000 dwellings have been approved over the year to April, equally split between detached houses and attached dwellings.

As depicted by the green line, this is historically unusual.

Houses and units

Only Melbourne is really going for it on the house approvals front.

Yet in terms of attached dwellings both Sydney (37,228) and Brisbane (21,228) have approved historically high volumes, while Melbourne (31,566) is now retracing from unprecedented heights.

High rise surge - concentration risk

More than 73,000 of the dwellings approved over the past year have been "high rise" approvals of four or more storeys. 

This clear risk is concentrated within pockets of the three most populous states.

Caveat emptor.

The wrap

A terrific set of results for the economy in this morning's data, with the building approvals data suggesting that the residential building boom has a fair way to run yet.

Clearly some areas will be awash with new apartments over the next couple of years, with a twin settlement and valuation risk looming in this sector.