It's worth remembering that owner-occupiers represent a greater share of the market, and as such have the potential to push prices up in the areas in which they are buying (think middle-ring suburbs, catchments for good schools, good transport links, appealing shopping and lifestyle locations).
Investors should now begin to account for about one third of the market, which is much more in line with historical averages.
In my opinion there is very little value in comparing returns with the share market over a one or two year timeframe. Each asset class has its merits and place in a portfolio, but generally speaking property needs at least a ten year time horizon in order to justify the transaction costs.
The data yesterday confirmed that home loan activity levels - although not necessarily aggregate mortgage values - are rising solidly in Queensland, and this is readily visible in some of the family-friendly middle ring suburbs of Brisbane. Investor hubs are considerably patchier, and many of the resources regions are an absolute disaster zone.
A final point of interest for today is that markets had increasingly been lining up bets for an interest rate cut as soon as May, though I personally didn't like the odds of that happening.
I don't spend hours deliberating over monetary policy wording, but clearly the Reserve Bank (RBA) noted in its most recent decision release that "continued low inflation would allow scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate...".
There are probably three things that would need to be in place for an interest rate cut, being a cooling of property investor lending (tentative tick), confirmation that hiring is weakening, and evidently confirmation of continued low inflation.
The Labour Force figures for March are due out on Thursday, and the market consensus sees a fairly moderate result as likely, with some clear risks to the unemployment rate reading, while the March inflation data is due out towards the end of the month.
There's a bit of water to flow under the bridge between now and then, but a nice bump in key commodity prices overnight and an incredibly strong result from NAB's Business Survey really don't point towards a rate cut at this stage.
A cracking NAB survey showed a surge in business conditions at their highest level in fully eight years since 2008, and while the employment gauge jumped to a five year high. Business conditions are now showing a reading of +12, absolutely miles above the long run average of +5, and capacity utilisation has improved strongly (I do note here, though, that the outlook for mining remains dire).
The RBA has arguably been a reluctant cutter through this cycle, so I reckon that rules out a May cut. In fact, interest rates could be on hold for as far as the eye can see.
As ever, happy to be proven wrong on that, though.