Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Monday, 11 April 2016

Queensland home loan activity trending up

February rebound

As expected total Housing Finance rebounded in February to a seasonally adjusted aggregate of $32.8 billion, driven by a month-on-month increase from January both in owner-occupier housing (+1.7 per cent) and resurgent investment loans (+4.1 per cent).

Total seasonally adjusted dwelling finance is some way below the August 2015 peak of $33.7 billion, yet given that the $30 billion threshold had never been breached before the December quarter of 2014 a monthly total of $32.8 billion remains a fairly hefty result.

Despite the monthly result bettering January's offering, the smoothed trend figures clearly suggest an orderly cooling of demand, with total dwelling finance now in a seven month downtrend.

Importantly seasonally adjusted investor lending appears to be consolidating at or around $11-$12 billion per month, down from an unprecedented high of well over $14 billion in April 2015.

The total number of owner-occupier commitments has been trending up steadily since a mid-2010 nadir, although this has been largely driven by refinancing lately and across the states the picture is somewhat mixed.

Queensland leads

At the state level the growth in owner-occupier activity has tapered off in New South Wales and Victoria. In fact, of all the states and territories only Queensland is now in a remotely convincing uptrend.

APRA's regulatory intervention has tightened serviceability criteria significantly, and in turn the average loan size has pulled back by about 8 per cent from a record high of more than $390,000 in November 2015.

This is correspondingly reflected in the total value of owner-occupier commitments at the state level, with a notable cooling evident.

In particular, there has been a pullback in new dwelling finance, which almost certainly portends the end of the residential construction boom.

Next up, a more detailed look at some of the key sub-trends.