Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Monday, 11 April 2016

Queensland home loan activity trending up

February rebound

As expected total Housing Finance rebounded in February to a seasonally adjusted aggregate of $32.8 billion, driven by a month-on-month increase from January both in owner-occupier housing (+1.7 per cent) and resurgent investment loans (+4.1 per cent).

Total seasonally adjusted dwelling finance is some way below the August 2015 peak of $33.7 billion, yet given that the $30 billion threshold had never been breached before the December quarter of 2014 a monthly total of $32.8 billion remains a fairly hefty result.


Despite the monthly result bettering January's offering, the smoothed trend figures clearly suggest an orderly cooling of demand, with total dwelling finance now in a seven month downtrend.

Importantly seasonally adjusted investor lending appears to be consolidating at or around $11-$12 billion per month, down from an unprecedented high of well over $14 billion in April 2015.


The total number of owner-occupier commitments has been trending up steadily since a mid-2010 nadir, although this has been largely driven by refinancing lately and across the states the picture is somewhat mixed.


Queensland leads

At the state level the growth in owner-occupier activity has tapered off in New South Wales and Victoria. In fact, of all the states and territories only Queensland is now in a remotely convincing uptrend.


APRA's regulatory intervention has tightened serviceability criteria significantly, and in turn the average loan size has pulled back by about 8 per cent from a record high of more than $390,000 in November 2015.


This is correspondingly reflected in the total value of owner-occupier commitments at the state level, with a notable cooling evident.


In particular, there has been a pullback in new dwelling finance, which almost certainly portends the end of the residential construction boom.

Next up, a more detailed look at some of the key sub-trends.