Pete Wargent blogspot


'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Business Insider.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Melbourne vacancy rates in decline for nearly 2 years - lowest since 2010


Ah, right on cue.

I have noted a couple of times lately - including here and here - how, despite many warnings of apartment oversupply, given that most new dwellings through this unique market cycle are in effect financed by offshore investors, many units may never make it to the local rental market.

As such, combined with strong population growth in the largest cities, the predicted oversupply to date has not materialised.

In fact, in the more popular parts of the largest capitals rental stock levels seem to have tightened (secondary locations, not so much).

As if to underscore the same point, SQM Research released its latest data yesterday which showed Melbourne's vacancy rate having declined all the way from 2.7 per cent in June 2014 to just 1.9 per cent in March 2016.

And this in spite of the biggest construction boom in Australian history.

Sydney's vacancy rates are much lower still at just 1.6 per cent, with asking rents for units up by +5.4 per cent year-on-year.

Meanwhile, Canberra's vacancy rates have tightened quite dramatically to just 1.1 per cent from 1.5 per cent a year ago.

And Hobart continues to have a chronically low vacancy rate of just 0.9 per cent.

SQM noted that vacancy rates have even declined sharply in apartment oversupply hotspots that everyone knows about such as the Melbourne CBD (1.9 per cent), South Bank (3.7 per cent), and Docklands (2.9 per cent), to sit below their respective long run averages.

The only major conurbations or capital city sub-regions presently showing signs of oversupply according to SQM are Perth, Darwin, and the Brisbane CBD.

Interesting stuff.

Read SQM's release here.