Pete Wargent blogspot


'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Business Insider.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Last huzza for UK house price boom

March surge

UK house prices experienced the expected surge in March according to Halifax in advance of a clampdown on buy-to-let, with annual price growth surging to double digit levels at more than +10 per cent.

The quarterly data isn't yet available for Q1 2016, but evidently the indexed figures to the end of 2015 show that dwelling price growth has continued to be driven by London and its immediately surrounding regions.

Since 2008 the price of flats (+57 per cent) has increased far ahead of the price of houses (+37 per cent), driven overwhelmingly by flat prices in the capital and housing affordability constraints, while supply levels remain very low.

Asking prices surge to record

Rightmove also released its asking prices index which boomed by +£3,843 or +1.3 per cent to set a record high of £307,033, while London asking prices have increased to a barnstorming £646,200.

The boom was driven by a predictable chain reaction as investors rushed to buy before the 1 April deadline.

Growth has now rippled outwards to the East (+10.8 per cent) and South East (+9.4 per cent), where price growth is now ahead of London (+8.7 per cent).

The wrap

Although incentives exist for first homebuyers, price growth momentum will undoubtedly now slow as investor buying drops off a cliff, although Rightmove did note that March had been its busiest ever month for website visits. 

Given that the supply of new dwellings has not even remotely kept pace with demand under successive governments, as sure as night follows day rents will now spike as 2016 unfolds, leading to reports of a rental crisis in the south east of England.