Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Monday, 4 April 2016

Building approvals boom all over bar the grouting

Approvals boom fading

Today's Building Approvals data revealed the expected rebound in February after the seasonal lull in January, but the downtrend is clearly in place from the trend peak of 11 months ago.

House approvals have rolled a little, but the tailing off is more likely to be seen in the units, apartments and townhouses sector following an impressive burst since 2012. 

Capital city analysis

House approvals are faading fast in Perth in reaction to elevated vacancy rates, while Melbourne continues to approve the greatest number of houses by some margin, and as such may be the city with the greatest potential for overbuilding. 

The last couple of months have been much slower for unit approvals in Sydney and Melbourne, which is now being reflected in the rolling annual figures below.

After nearly a decade of under-building Sydney is now approving a decent number of attached dwellings.

Dream over for high rise

This record approvals boom for Australia has largely been driven by "high rise" or four plus storey unit blocks, but this part of the approvals boom has noticeably slowed over the past four months. 

Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have each gone hard at approvals in the high density sector over the past few years, but all three cities have now passed their respective peaks. 

The wrap

With APRA having insisted upon tigher lending criteria for investors building approvals will in all likelihood continue to slow from here, following a record run.

Even at this well advanced stage in the construction cycle vacancy rates have been tightening in inner Sydney to just 1.3 per cent, but cracks are starting to show in some of the secondary and outer areas where vacancy rates are above 2 per cent (and in some pockets higher again).