Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Thursday, 24 March 2016

Population growth steadies at +313,000

Population growth steadies

The ABS released its Australian Demographic Statistics figures for September 2015 which confirmed the expected steadying of population growth at an annual total of +313,200, with government projections showing a fresh increase expected through 2016.

Net overseas migration has slowed significantly since the end of the mining construction boom, though it is now flattening out. In fact, it never really pulled back at all in the largest cities, but the slowdown has been felt in the resources states.

The talk of population growth "dropping off a cliff" was all a bit dramatic, with the estimated resident population of Australia having now fizzed past 24 million, just at a slightly less breakneck pace than before. Compare the rate of population growth to forecasts made in 1999, for example.

There had been an issue related to the collation of data for births in New South Wales, but it seems that data entry staff got up to speed in the June quarter, so this anomaly should now wash through. No revisions were made to the quarterly data, however, so it all looks like a bit of a tennis ball in a hosepipe.

While alas we expect the number of "departures" to increase over time, the rolling annual deaths total has declined across the past two quarters, while the blip in the births figures is also visible here.

With population growth of around 82,300 in the September quarter, it seems that the rate of population growth has now steadied in line with DIBP forecasts.

The annual rate of population growth is bottoming out at around 313,000, roughly in line with projections - which project an increase in 2016, largely driven by a higher intake of international students.

The big picture is that population growth has remained tremendously strong in the largest capital cities, but has slowed dramatically in resources states and many of the regions. Next up, I'll take a look at the state by state trends.